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It is a historic day that will be remembered as a record low, as not only coins but also the stock market are falling.

Bitcoin continues to hit new lows every day as it falls. Panic selling is happening one after another. It has continued to plummet from the high of 70K to 49K without any rebound.

The reason for this decline is that employment indicators have raised concerns about a recession, and the Fed's continued freeze on interest rates has failed to adequately respond, leading to market reactions that a recession may occur.

Let's talk about whether the market is really doing well right now, and whether we should continue investing, by referring to various perspectives.

The plummeting virtual asset market... Major exchanges are also facing 'gloomy performance' due to a decline in the number of users.

Amidst the plunge in Bitcoin prices below $60,000 and the relinquishment of the $55,000 mark due to concerns over the US recession and escalating tensions in the Middle East, the number of users on virtual asset exchanges has decreased last month.

Since Bitcoin reached its peak in March last year, exceeding 100 million won, the number of users has been declining along with the decline in Bitcoin prices. As the number of users of virtual asset exchanges continues to decrease, forecasts suggest that earnings will be sluggish not only in the second quarter but also in the third quarter.

Where is the bottom... Bitcoin falls below $60,000
As of 1 pm on the 5th, according to Upbit, a virtual asset exchange, the price of Bitcoin was trading at around 76 million won. This is a sharp decline of nearly 20 million won compared to the same time last week. Particularly, the price has plunged by over 15 million won since last weekend. The price of Bitcoin appears to have been affected by various factors such as concerns over the US recession, fears of the spread of the Middle East war, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.

On the 31st of last month, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.15~0.25%. In addition, on the 1st (local time), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced in its official statement that it will keep interest rates unchanged. The US benchmark interest rate remained at 5.25~5.50%.

Furthermore, the US manufacturing PMI for July came in at 46.8, the lowest level in eight months, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, exceeding market expectations (4.1%). According to the US Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, significantly below market expectations (176,000).

Adding to these concerns, Iran has stated that it is prepared to engage in war, raising concerns about an escalation of the Middle East war. Iran had previously received requests from Arab countries to refrain from retaliatory attacks against Israel. However, it is reported that Iran rejected these requests, stating that it doesn't matter if a war breaks out. In response, Israel is reportedly considering preemptive strikes against Iran as well.

With a combination of various negative factors, the KOSPI and virtual assets have plummeted together. The KOSPI index fell by over 193 points at one point in the afternoon on the 5th, setting a record for the largest single-day drop.

(Source : Dontaku https://blog.naver.com/dontakoo/223536977235)

I wanted to share this with you because I think it's a great article to think about.

Until now, stocks... especially US stocks have been rising a lot, which has also contributed to positive consumer sentiment.

Because stocks are rising, people are feeling rich and spending money generously.

But this is now shattered.

The pillar that maintained consumer sentiment has collapsed.

The reason why US stocks were strong is because people all over the world bought a lot of US stocks... The decline in the stock market could accelerate the contraction of global consumption.

Paradoxically, it's not that the stock market is crashing because of the recession.

The stock market crash could accelerate the global recession.

Stock market crash > Feeling broke > Reduced consumption > Accelerated recession > Confirmation of recession belatedly

Perhaps the older generation's advice to avoid stocks and investments came from such experiences.

I believe in Bitcoin's cycle, but just as it hit a double top and declined due to economic influence during the previous bull market, it is an asset and therefore must be influenced by the economy.

Therefore, I believe it could decline at any time and the bull market might end prematurely.

However, to end it here, Bitcoin, as a commodity asset, has received a lot of institutional funds due to the benefits of liquidity supply from lower interest rates, and therefore I believe there are plenty of materials for it to rise.

When considering investments, we must consider various perspectives, and we must also take into account perspectives similar to Dontaku's.

The cryptocurrency market is volatile and carries high risks, but if we believe in the halving cycle, one thing is certain: it's not over yet.

If it drops, I plan to buy Bitcoin first, rather than altcoins.

I would love to share different perspectives on what you think!

Here is a picture comparing it to the decline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although the decline has not yet reached that level, the altcoin bear market has lasted for a long time, creating a strong sense of fear in the market.

However, Bitcoin's fundamentals have not changed, and it appears to be largely due to external noise. It could also be a process of normalizing the market as it has inflated in the past.

I don't think it's too early to talk about the end of the season.

Thank you for visiting today!