[US Stock Market Correction Pre-Empting Interest Rate Cuts?] Changes After Consumer Index Announcement, Capital Gains Tax Abolition, Virtual Asset Tax Postponement

Hello, this is SEPOWER!

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Yesterday, the Nasdaq plummeted, causing Bitcoin to experience sharp drops and surges, indicating a significant impact.

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The cryptocurrency market is becoming as weary as the scorching weather.

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It truly feels like we're past halftime and heading into the second half.

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Today, we'll take a look at the overall economy, including the US stock market, the upcoming presidential election, and cryptocurrencies.

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Following yesterday's trend, the Nasdaq started with a strong decline, but saw some recovery in the middle of the day. The cryptocurrency market mirrored the movement of risk assets, ultimately showing weakness.

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First, the economic indicators released before the market opened were better than expected.

The first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at 2.8%, significantly exceeding the expected 2%. This was driven by increased investment and consumption across various sectors. It was confirmed that the overall economy, not just specific sectors, is robust.

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Furthermore, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 235,000 last week, lower than anticipated. This signifies that the job market remains strong. With both GDP and employment showing positive signs, there's ample reason to believe that concerns about a recession are unwarranted.

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If today's PCE inflation data shows a continued decline as the market expects, it could foster a very positive economic environment. Currently, the market's focus seems to be shifting from inflation to economic growth. The biggest concern is whether a soft landing is possible without a recession.

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If inflation also shows a downward trend alongside this economic growth, the 'Goldilocks scenario' – where the economy is stable and inflation is low – becomes more likely.

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Interest rate expectations are already reflected in the market. The market anticipates a very high probability of an interest rate cut in September. Therefore, whether or not interest rates are cut in September is not crucial. What matters is whether we can navigate the period leading up to the interest rate cut without a recession.

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As you can see from the chart above, historically, interest rate cuts have always been followed by a recession. Whether this time will be different will be a key factor in the future market.

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The outcome will be determined by today's PCE announcement and tomorrow's Trump speech. Trump's speech is particularly important because recent expectations for Trump have played a significant role in the recent rise in Bitcoin prices. If Trump delivers a speech without any concrete promises and resorts to mere lip service, it could trigger a wave of sell-offs.

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Fortunately, recent polls have shown surprisingly close results. Notably, the Harris poll indicates a rise in support from younger demographics, which is positive. The more certain Trump's victory becomes, the higher the likelihood that he will not make any significant pronouncements in his speech.

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However, if the polls are close, particularly with Harris gaining support among younger demographics, who tend to be more involved in cryptocurrency investment, Trump will feel pressure to make a significant announcement.

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In reality, Rep. Cynthia Lummis, a pro-cryptocurrency congresswoman, is preparing a groundbreaking bill for Bitcoin. If Trump wins and the Republicans gain a majority, this bill has a high chance of passing. The community anticipates this bill as a strategic reserve asset bill for Bitcoin. It is expected that the outline of this bill will be revealed at the upcoming Bitcoin conference, and if announced alongside Trump's speech, it could have a significant impact.

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Kennedy, who is running as an independent candidate, is making even bolder claims. He has expressed his intention to purchase Bitcoin as a 'national reserve asset'. He is advocating for purchasing Bitcoin on the scale of gold during his term. At current prices, this would require the purchase of nearly 10 million BTC. Of course, if this happens, the price will rise, and the target amount will be reached much sooner.

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Of course, Kennedy's chances of winning are slim, so his statements don't hold immediate significance. However, the fact that someone of his stature, who is running for President of the United States, is so strongly supportive of Bitcoin is important.

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Ultimately, since Bitcoin is now an officially recognized asset with the approval of the ETF, it appears to be inevitably influenced by the overall economic situation, unlike in the past.

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One thing is clear, as you can see from the recent posts, the probability of the bull market not being over yet is very high.

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I'm curious to know what mindset you, our neighbors who are investing in cryptocurrencies, have regarding the upcoming bull market.

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And it would be great to share opinions on how you would respond if the bull market doesn't come as expected. Please leave lots of comments!

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Thank you for visiting today, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend! :)

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Influencer YouTube, Cryptocurrency, President Trump, Bitcoin Mining, All in the US?

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