Hello, SEPOWER!

​

​

Yesterday, Nasdaq plummeted, and Bitcoin also showed a sharp decline and surge, suggesting that it was significantly impacted.

​

The cryptocurrency market is as tired as the scorching weather.

​

It feels like we've passed halftime and are now entering the second half.

​

Today, we'll take a comprehensive look at the US stock market, the presidential election, and cryptocurrency, covering the overall economy.

​

​

​

​

The US stock market opened with Nasdaq sharply declining, continuing yesterday's trend, but partially recovered at mid-session. The cryptocurrency market also moved similarly to the flow of risky assets and ultimately showed weakness.

​

​

​

Firstly, economic indicators released before the market opened were better than expected.

The first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at 2.8%, significantly exceeding the projected 2%. This is attributed to increased investment in various sectors and a rise in consumer spending. It was confirmed that the overall economy, not just a specific sector, is strong.

​

​

​

​

Furthermore, initial jobless claims also came in lower than expected at 235,000, down 8,000 from the previous week. This signifies that the job market remains robust. With both GDP and employment figures favorable, it's sufficient to instill confidence that there's no need to worry about the economy.

​

​

​

If the PCE inflation data, which will be released today, maintains a downward trend as expected by the market, a significantly positive economic environment could be created. Currently, the market's focus appears to be shifting from inflation to the economy. The biggest concern is whether a soft landing can be achieved without a recession.

​

​

If inflation shows a declining trend along with this, the possibility of a "Goldilocks" scenario - where the economy remains strong while inflation falls - becomes increasingly likely.

​

​

Interest rate expectations are already reflected in the market. The market anticipates a very high probability of an interest rate cut in September. Therefore, whether or not an interest rate cut happens in September is not crucial. The important question is whether we can navigate through this interest rate cut period without a recession.

​

​

​

As you can see from the chart above, recessions have always followed interest rate cuts in the past. The key question for the future market will be whether this time will be different.

​

​

The outcome will be determined by the PCE release today and Trump's speech tomorrow. Trump's speech is particularly important because expectations surrounding him have played a significant role in the recent rise in Bitcoin prices. If Trump delivers a speech without any concrete promises and only offers lip service, disappointment could lead to a sell-off.

​

​

​

​

Fortunately, recent polls have shown surprisingly close results. A positive sign is that Harris has seen a rise in support among young voters, particularly from the Harris camp. The greater the certainty of Trump's victory, the less likely he is to make any "big announcements" in his speech.

​

However, if the predictions are close, especially with Harris having higher support among young voters, who tend to be heavy cryptocurrency investors, Trump will feel pressure to prepare something big.

​

​

​

In fact, Cynthia Lummis, a pro-cryptocurrency senator, is preparing a groundbreaking bill for Bitcoin. If Trump wins and the Republicans take control of Congress, this bill has a high chance of passing. The community expects this bill to be a strategic reserve asset bill for Bitcoin. Its outline is expected to be revealed at the upcoming Bitcoin conference, and if announced alongside Trump's speech, it could create a significant impact.

​

​

Kennedy, who is running as an independent candidate, is making even bolder claims. He has expressed his stance on purchasing Bitcoin as a "national reserve asset." He argues that he will buy an amount comparable to gold during his term. That would mean buying almost 10 million BTC at current prices. Of course, if that happens, the price will go up, and he'll reach that target amount well before then.

​

​

Of course, Kennedy's chances of winning are low, so his claims don't hold much significance right now. However, the fact that a person running for president of the United States is so strongly supportive of Bitcoin is significant.

​

​

​

​

​

Ultimately, Bitcoin is an officially recognized asset, with ETFs approved, so it's bound to be influenced by overall economic conditions more than in the past.

​

One thing is clear: as you look back at recent posts, the likelihood of the bull market not being over yet is very high.

​

I'm curious about the mindset with which you, our neighbors who invest in cryptocurrency, are approaching this upcoming bull market.

​

And if this bull market doesn't come, it would be great to share opinions on how you would respond. Leave lots of comments!

​

​

Thank you for visiting today, and I hope you have a wonderful weekend! :)

​

​

​

​

Powerful YouTubers, cryptocurrency presidents, Trump, Bitcoin mining, all from the US?

​

​

Powerful community Sepower contact ↓